2008 Race

Note: I replaced the republican bid blog with my amendment blog, so I will devote a small portion of this blog to naming the candidate I think will most likely be the republican 2008 presidential candidate.

The 2008 race is as unpredictable as ever, with many factors in the mix. The republican field may be dominated by, as usual, all white males, but the democratic field will most likely feature either an African American or a woman candidate. I have previously chosen Hilary Clinton as the most likely candidate for the democratic party, and I will address the bid for the republican party followed by an analysis of who will win between those two.

The republican bid sees either Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani in the candidacy by the end of the GOP convention. I give a slight edge to Mitt Romney. Giuliani has demonstrated he can lean too far left on a number of occasions and issues, most notably that of abortion – he has supported, in the past, the pro – choice position. Some far right Christians, who hold plenty of power in the GOP, are shocked that a republican candidate like Romney can hold to Mormon beliefs, but I doubt this will sway enough voters toward the Giuliani camp, especially because these same ultra – conservative Christians are even more fearful of Giuliani’s stance on abortion. The fact is, Romney’s moral system is very similar to that of any Christian’s, and like most religious people, it is very likely he has accepted religion because he believes he will better himself through it, not because he really believes in every teaching of Mormonism as the ultimate truth. Romney will win the republican bid, if slightly.

Clinton vs. Romney: interesting only because it is the highest level of competition on the earth. Neither are strike anyone as brilliant or head – turningly charismatic or interesting. It is another election of mediocrity.

That said, Clinton does have the edge. Romney is slightly more dull, if only for Clinton’s greater volume and extra passion in speech. Clinton represents change, and no matter what Romney says, America will never see him as a great enough swing away from Bush administration policy; people right now want change, or at least they want to hear someone say they will change things, though in actuality few people are ever bold enough to approve of real change when it’s finally time for business. Lastly, Clinton is a woman; I think this will earn her more votes than some people imagine. If I were part of a society or club of some kind that had elected a woman as president every year of its existence, I would have to vote for a man in the next election no matter what his stance, because of ego. Women may not yet have as great an ego as the man, but culture is quickly changing that. Many women will vote for Clinton because of ego.

It might be tight, but I would lean more toward Clinton with a comfortable win. I’m not calling it a landslide by any stretch of the imagination, but Clinton could win the office with relative ease. I mean Romney won’t feel the need to call for a recount.